Recently in The Future Category

This posting (1) begins by summarizing what is happening to our global oil supply, (2) continues by reminding the reader of the indispensable, yet perhaps unrecognized, role oil plays in our lives, and (3) closes by presenting some implications of dwindling oil supplies for our way of life over the medium term.

How much longer can oil support our way of life?

It is generally recognized that, since the first modern well was drilled in the mid-1800s, mankind has consumed roughly half of the world’s oil. An estimated 1,200 billion barrels of oil still remains in known reserves.¹ If we then assume we continue consuming oil at the current rate (30 billion barrels annually), oil would essentially run out in about 40 years. This is basic arithmetic and, although some maintain that the precise numbers may be somewhat higher or lower, the basic conclusion is not open to debate. Of course, long before oil reserves are exhausted, consumers worldwide will be facing higher prices due to expanding competition among the world's economies, increased difficulty in extracting oil, and decreased quality of the oil pumped. This impact is already starting to be felt.

Yesterday, after nearly 6 years of continuous employment, I ended my tenure at Rainbow Studios. I had a blast, made many friends that I will keep in contact with, and learned a great deal. It is the end of a huge chapter in my life, but as that one ends, another begins. I will soon be starting on the ground floor with the guys over at 2XL games, the latest start-up game studio in the valley. Founded by the guys that originally formed and built Rainbow (and the guys that sold it later for a cool $50 million), we will be breaking ground on next-generation games and building a new legacy through talent. I can't wait.

The miracle drug?

Daily, we stand in awe of man's ingenuity in mastering the elements and are enamored to the technology it develops—747s, cell phones, genetic engineering, Teflon, solar cells, titanium hips, etc. Furthermore, whenever we encounter a problem, we eagerly expect technology to instantly come to our rescue and, without fail, to work its miracles. However, the lure of seemingly clear technical solutions to our problems blinds us to the fact that frequently lurking within the "solutions" are the seeds of new problems. These germinate in quiet, only to eventually burst forth and blossom into a new crop of troubles that further exacerbate the original issue and force us to devote yet more attention and resources to resolving them.

To see one example of a technological "fix" and some of the unexpected problems it introduces, click Continue reading "Technological 'fixes'" immediately below (or simply scroll down if there is no link).

Heng and I recently descended into Chaco Canyon in the arid northwest corner of New Mexico where we camped and visited the impressive ruins of the Anasazi Indians. For over half a millennium, these communities had prospered and expanded in size, and therefore in complexity, sophistication, and interdependence. But in the process, they seem to have failed to foresee the seeds of their own destruction.

To learn what took place in Chaco Canyon and the warning this presents our global society, click on the link Continue reading "Chaco Canyon" immediately below (or simply scroll down if there is no link) .